Opinions

What will happen in Belarus when Lukashenko dies? A look at several possible scenarios
What will happen in Belarus when Lukashenko dies? A look at several possible scenarios

Alexander Lukashenko’s health problems have reminded Belarussians that the dictator is a human being after all. Who will succeed him – will it be a member of the current administration, a representative of the opposition or someone appointed by Moscow?

Latvia has a new pro-EU president. Will the country’s ruling coalition survive?
Latvia has a new pro-EU president. Will the country’s ruling coalition survive?

După ce respectatul ministru leton de externe Edgars Rinkēvičs, a fost ales președinte, zilele coaliției pro-europene de guvernare ar putea fi numărate.

Georgia’s EU integration, threatened by the unwillingness to reform the judiciary
Georgia’s EU integration, threatened by the unwillingness to reform the judiciary

While Georgia hopes to be granted EU-candidate status, its government seems unwilling to reform the judiciary, as demanded by both Brussels and the US.

Diana Shanava
31 May 2023
Turkey: the triumph of the Islamists
Turkey: the triumph of the Islamists

The victory of Erdoğan’s authoritarian and conservative regime is the victory of devout Turks who considered themselves repressed by the secular republican regimes of the last century.

Erdoğan vs. Kiliçdaroğlu, or the fault lines of Turkey’s politics
Erdoğan vs. Kiliçdaroğlu, or the fault lines of Turkey’s politics

On May 28, Turks will decide whether to consolidate the regime of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the strongman of Turkey’s politics who has reigned unchallenged for the last 20 years, or to vote for Kemal Kiliçdaroğlu, seen as Turkey’s “Ghandi”, who fosters a return to old republican values.

Moldova’s Interior Minister: “In the Republic of Moldova, Russia’s primary goal was to spread propaganda, disinformation and to use blackmail”
Moldova’s Interior Minister: “In the Republic of Moldova, Russia’s primary goal was to spread propaganda, disinformation and to use blackmail”

Russia is involved in a hybrid war against the Republic of Moldova, says the Moldovan Interior Minister, Ana Revenco. In an interview to Veridica, Minister Revenco also said that, in spite of facing the greatest security challenges since the war in Transnistria, the Republic of Moldova also benefits from the West’s endorsement, which has conveyed a clear message to Russia regarding the “red lines” it shouldn’t cross with respect to Chișinău.

Russia’s plans to bring the Baltic countries in its orbit
Russia’s plans to bring the Baltic countries in its orbit

Russia has drawn plans for each Baltic country on how to influence local politics and society. The war in Ukraine seems to have derailed these plans, but that doesn’t mean that Russia’s long-term goals have changed.

Why Russia will never be the same after the war in Ukraine
Why Russia will never be the same after the war in Ukraine

Putin’s propaganda managed to bring Russia to the brink of a civilizational makeover, at the end of which we will finally be able to claim that Russia’s quest for empire has truly ended.

Cosmin Popa
12 May 2023
The Estonian scandal that brought into spotlight corruption in Ukraine
The Estonian scandal that brought into spotlight corruption in Ukraine

In March, a scandal erupted in Estonia: money raised for Ukraine by the most famous Estonian charitable organization, Slava Ukraini, had apparently been misused. This lead to a sharp decrease of donations for Ukraine and brought into spotlight that country’s rampant corruption.

The candidates supported by Dodon and Shor are contesting the leadership of Gagauzia
The candidates supported by Dodon and Shor are contesting the leadership of Gagauzia

The candidates supported by the former president Igor Dodon, and the fugitive oligarch Ilan Shor respectively, got the largest number of votes in the first round of the elections for the office of Governor of Gagauzia. The campaign was marked by the promotion of Russian propaganda narratives, the involvement of some Russian politicians and artists, but also by a diplomatic scandal between the Republic of Moldova and Russia.

Veridica
01 May 2023
12 things to know about the Ukrainian grain crisis
12 things to know about the Ukrainian grain crisis

Like many other topics linked to Ukraine, the grain crisis was also used to discredit Kyiv and undermine international assistance to this country. Certain aspects about this story have been exaggerated or taken out of context, while quite a few false narratives have also surfaced in the region. Veridica has examined 12 burning questions about the Ukrainian grain crisis.

Cezar Manu
29 Apr 2023
The President challenging the Georgian Dream
The President challenging the Georgian Dream

Georgian President Salome Zourabishvili is increasingly distancing herself from the ruling Georgian Dream party that helped her win the elections. Zourabishvili opposes the Georgian Dream increasingly anti-Western rhetoric and seems poised to challenge the Georgian Dream with a new political movement that would bring Georgia closer to the EU.

Diana Shanava
21 Apr 2023
Partner of necessity or loyal ally? Belarus’s part in Putin’s war against Ukraine
Partner of necessity or loyal ally? Belarus’s part in Putin’s war against Ukraine

Alexander Lukashenko’s close ties to the Kremlin have made Belarus a co-aggressor in Russia’s war against Ukraine, which in the future might turn this country into a target of a possible nuclear retaliation. All that was made possible due to the barter Belarussian authorities consented to by allowing Putin to use a strategically important territory in exchange for keeping Lukashenko in office. Yet just how important a part does Belarus play in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and what does that entail for the future of the region?

Pentagon leaks: what we know so far and the questions that need answers
Pentagon leaks: what we know so far and the questions that need answers

US authorities have arrested and indicted a suspect in the leaked Pentagon documents investigation. There are however questions the public expect to be answered, from how a 21-year-old was allowed to upload top-secret documents online, to the nature of the data itself – are we truly looking at classified information, or is this an elaborate form of disinformation?

Netanyahu, between the hammer and the anvil
Netanyahu, between the hammer and the anvil

For a long time, the silent majority of Israelis have allowed the Netanyahu administrations to erode the democratic system and jeopardize the chances of peace with the Palestinians. But hundreds of thousands of people took to the streets to stop the justice reform that most Israelis see as a danger to the country's democratic institutions - but which is wanted by the extremists on whom the government depends.

Estonia and the “old weapons” for Ukraine scandal
Estonia and the “old weapons” for Ukraine scandal

Estonia gave Ukraine old weapons, paid for with European money, but charged Brussels for new ones, according to European sources quoted by Politico. Many in Estonia’s political establishment categorically rejected the allegations, but some admitted there is some truth in them, explaining that the scandal has to do both with Tallinn’s self-righteousness towards its partners when it comes to helping Ukraine, and its desire to better arm itself.

Russians in Latvia: pro-Ukraine or pro-Putin?
Russians in Latvia: pro-Ukraine or pro-Putin?

Latvia is a staunch supporter of Ukraine. However, around one quarter of its population is made up of Russian ethnics, and the number of those speaking Russian as a first language is higher. The war in Ukraine brought into focus the loyalties of that population – do they support Riga’s policy and Ukraine, or Russia’s aggression and president Vladimir Putin? No one seems to know the answer to that.

Donald Trump indicted. The significance of an unprecedented case
Donald Trump indicted. The significance of an unprecedented case

Donald Trump is the first former US president to be brought to court in a criminal investigation. How will the trial (and others that might follow) affect Trump’s political standing, given the ex-president has already announced his White House bid in 2024?

Saving the oceans, a priority for the global economy and for the ecological balance of the Earth
Saving the oceans, a priority for the global economy and for the ecological balance of the Earth

Carbon emissions, pollution and overfishing are putting the world's oceans at risk. They play a key role in maintaining the ecological balance of the Earth, but also in the global economy. Urgent measures to protect them and a better understanding of the phenomena that affect them are much needed.

Is Turkey headed for the end of the Erdoğan era?
Is Turkey headed for the end of the Erdoğan era?

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his party, AKP, will face the most difficult elections in the last twenty years. The economic crisis, the February 6 earthquake, the opposition coalition and the possible mobilization of the Kurds diminish Erdoğan's chances of staying in power. The end of the Erdoğan era does not mean that Turkey will become a liberal democracy – but there is a chance that it will

Xi in Moscow: a lifeline for Putin, money and prestige for China
Xi in Moscow: a lifeline for Putin, money and prestige for China

Xi Jinping visited “dear friend” Vladimir Putin in Moscow to promote his peace plan and sign deals that will take trade to $200 billion. For Putin, increasingly isolated internationally, the visit was a lifeline. For Xi, an opportunity to promote China's interests and his own image.

In Georgia, the government is looking at the Russian playbook while the population is aiming for EU membership
In Georgia, the government is looking at the Russian playbook while the population is aiming for EU membership

Georgia’s ruling Georgian Dream was recently forced to drop a Russian-inspired bill. The party seems determined to return to this project, which may compromise Georgia's European path, but is promoted by Russian propaganda. The problem for the Georgian Dream - and for Moscow - is that most of the population opts for Euro-Atlantic integration.

Diana Shanava
21 Mar 2023
The war in Iraq, 20 years on: the top disinformation narratives used to justify it, the biggest successes and failures
The war in Iraq, 20 years on: the top disinformation narratives used to justify it, the biggest successes and failures

The war was launched to neutralize Iraq’s arsenal of weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) – which did not exist. It also sought to replace Saddam Hussein’s neo-Stalinist regime with a liberal democracy close to the United States. After twenty years and a series of serious mistakes, instead of a liberal democracy, Iraq got a rather authoritarian regime, despite the existence of political pluralism and free elections. The number one power that determines Baghdad’s policy-making is Iran, America’s biggest adversary in the region.

Timeline: milestones of the Iraq War
Timeline: milestones of the Iraq War

The war in Iraq started with a campaign against Saddam Hussein’s army and ended with the defeat of the Islamic State. In-between these milestones, the Sunnis and Shiites staged insurrections and started a civil war. Thousands of suicide bomb attacks were carried out during this period while battles left whole cities destroyed. Veridica presents the milestones of one of the most devastating conflicts in the Middle East.

What’s actually new in present-day Russia? How the Putin regime carried over the worst of the imperial and communist eras
What’s actually new in present-day Russia? How the Putin regime carried over the worst of the imperial and communist eras

Putin’s Russia is a conglomerate of toxic residue carried over from successive historical eras. From Russia’s imperial past, Russia inherited the fixation of becoming a global power. From the Soviet era, Putin sought to capitalize on the symbolic remnants of the superpower status, to make Russians believe this chapter in Russia’s history represented the pinnacle of their political existence. He added to this legacy the cynical and cunning attitudes specific to the criminal underworld, and he wrapped them in the illusion of power and wealth, to conceal the ruin and rot of widespread corruption.

Cosmin Popa
17 Mar 2023
Elections in Estonia: the victory of the liberals, the protest vote in Narva, and the success of the Putinists
Elections in Estonia: the victory of the liberals, the protest vote in Narva, and the success of the Putinists

The parliamentary elections held in Estonia showed that in an extremely unstable geopolitical situation in Europe, with the war in Ukraine going on for more than a year, the population is aware of the risks and is ready to rally around those political forces that rely on the European Union and NATO. At the same time, there were also some unpleasant discoveries for Estonian society.

How Russia’s invasion of Ukraine increased the Baltic countries’ profile within NATO
How Russia’s invasion of Ukraine increased the Baltic countries’ profile within NATO

Ever since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Baltic countries have been skeptical about Russia’s true aims. It was a view that proved to be more realistic than those held by many in the West, who thought that Russia can be a genuine partner of the Western liberal democracies and part of a stable international system.

The elimination of the Moldovan language and the pro-Russians’ fury. Moscow is losing the key tools it used to maintain its influence in Moldova
The elimination of the Moldovan language and the pro-Russians’ fury. Moscow is losing the key tools it used to maintain its influence in Moldova

The linguistic and identity issue has persisted throughout the Republic of Moldova’s 30 years of independence. The most important claim during the national liberation movement of 1988-91 – the recognition of the Romanian language as the official language and the fact that Moldovans are part of the Romanian people – was hijacked in the following years by politicians from the old communist nomenclature, who also succeeded to include in the Constitution the phrase “the Moldovan language” as the state language.

Why the February 6 quake could undermine the Erdoğan regime and Turkey’s aggressive foreign policy
Why the February 6 quake could undermine the Erdoğan regime and Turkey’s aggressive foreign policy

The February 6 quake could deal a heavy blow to the administration led by Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, commonly seen as the man responsible for the disregard of building safety codes. The Turkish president came under heavy criticism for the authorities’ sluggish response to this disaster, which affected primarily the Kurds and the Alevi. The quake might equally exert a heavy toll on Turkey’s foreign policy, considering that Ankara’s traditional enemies have shown solidarity with the Turkish people.

A year of war: top 10 moments
A year of war: top 10 moments

Russia launched its “special military operation” in the early hours of February 24. The scale and direction of the Russian attack show that Moscow was planning a blietzkrieg that would end with the beheading of the Ukrainian leadership and at least the seizing of the entire Black Sea coast to open the way to Transnistria. However, the Ukrainian resistance overturned Moscow's plans, and the conflict became a long-lasting one, in which both camps have scored successes, but also failures. Veridica presents 10 of the main moments of this war.

Georgia is being pushed towards Moscow’s orbit by oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili. Is the government in Tbilisi risking the ire of the country’s pro-European majority?
Georgia is being pushed towards Moscow’s orbit by oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili. Is the government in Tbilisi risking the ire of the country’s pro-European majority?

Formally, Tbilisi maintains its course towards integration into Euro-Atlantic structures, but the movement towards the West has been on inertia lately, while Moscow's influence is only growing. The ruling party, founded by oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili, increasingly links national interests with his personal interests, be it political or business related. At a decisive moment for Georgia's future, such a policy may prove fatal.

Diana Shanava
23 Feb 2023
General Cătălin Tomescu, former NATO MNC-SE commander: Ukraine needs 500 tanks to win
General Cătălin Tomescu, former NATO MNC-SE commander: Ukraine needs 500 tanks to win

Ukraine would need two fully equipped mechanized divisions to push the Russian forces out of the four regions annexed in the fall, according to the reserve lieutenant general Cătălin Tomiță Tomescu, tank officer and former commander of the Multinational Corps South East (MNC-SE ), NATO’s regional command. General Tomescu warns, however, that its human and material resources are an advantage to Russia, as well as the fact that its leaders are indifferent to the huge losses they are experiencing on the front.

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